Big Midweek: Man City v Real Madrid, West Ham, Pioli and Milan, Bruno Guimaraes

Is Manchester City versus Real Madrid a winner-takes-all Champions League semi-final? AC Milan are playing for pride as well as a trip to Istanbul while elsewhere, it’s big for West Ham and Newcastle…

Game to watch – Manchester City v Real Madrid
This is it then. The Champions League final that isn’t.

That sounds disrespectful to the two Milan sides and well, it probably is. But on Wednesday night, we have the holders against what many consider to be the best side in Europe right now, vying to face the third or fifth-best team in Italy. Whichever side triumphs at the Etihad will feel very confident of lifting the European Cup in Istanbul.

Real have done that more than any other club while for City, it would be their first and the culmination of everything they’ve worked towards under Pep Guardiola. It’s not just Real standing between them and the Champions League, but the Spaniards are certainly the biggest of two remaining obstacles.

So it bodes well for City that they are in mighty fine shape right now. The Premier League is almost taking care of itself – or rather, Arsenal have taken care of it for them – and an FA Cup final against Manchester United was parked and forgotten about well ahead of the final whistle in the semi.

Almost the entirety of City’s focus is on Real and how they can be beaten. Last week’s first leg was just the warm-up, an intriguing livener between two sides who knew it couldn’t be won in the Bernabeu but it might be lost. City exhibited the kind of control that would have so pleased Guardiola, without ever finding a way to get Erling Haaland into the game.

Aside from the inconvenience of having to go and beat Everton on Sunday, Pep will have spent most of the last week sussing out how best to give Haaland the service he needs. Antonio Rudiger got to grips – literally at times – with the ridiculous Norwegian in the first leg but “next time it will be easier” for Europe’s most deadly marksman, said Guardiola, either bullishly, or while knowing something we don’t. Possibly both.

City versus Real deserves the biggest platform but this will do. Winner most likely takes all.

Manager to watch – Stefano Pioli
Of course, all of Milan would counter that last point, more by obligation than conviction perhaps, with the Inter side of the city looking much likelier to be decamping to Istanbul next month after their 2-0 win over their Rossoneri housemates.

It’s been a bad week for Milan and Pioli. After the defeat in the first leg, when they were deemed to be the home side at the San Siro, Pioli’s side lost by the same scoreline again on Saturday to lowly Spazia. Immediately after that embarrassment on Saturday, the coach and his players stood before the club’s Ultras for what looked like a dressing down, but those at the heart of the summit insist it was a very different exchange.

“It was a clear demonstration of affection, no one scalded anyone,” read a press release from Curva Sud. “It was a situation of peaceful confrontation, characterised by the incredible relationship that has been created between this team and the San Siro crowd.”

The Milan ultras were not happy with the players 😳 pic.twitter.com/5xJkeedknm

— Football on BT Sport (@btsportfootball) May 13, 2023

Pioli and the players backed up this version of events but, regardless of the intention, it cannot have been easy on the coach. And without a swift and sudden improvement from Milan on Tuesday night, the next meeting is sure to be rather less affectionate.

It helps that Pioli should be able to pick Rafael Leao once more after the forward missed last week’s first leg. In his absence, Milan struggled to penetrate Inter who perhaps ought to have earned a bigger advantage ahead of the return.

The fans and board remain on Pioli’s side but, while they sit outside the Champions League places in Serie A, the tide will turn if Milan aren’t the best version of themselves on Tuesday night.

Team to watch – West Ham
The Hammers’ Premier League status is not mathematically secure but they feel safe enough not to mask their priorities this week. It’s all about Thursday and reaching the Europa Conference League final.

David Moyes made a raft of changes for Sunday’s 2-0 defeat at Brentford so he could hardly bemoan the result, even if he still “didn’t like the performance”. Resting key players ahead of the trip to AZ Alkmaar served a dual purpose, with those brought in given the chance to play for their places and, in some cases, their West Ham futures. No one took their opportunity.

Even those who Moyes retained from Thursday’s 2-1 win in the first leg stank out the Gtech Community Stadium. Tomas Soucek was hooked near the hour mark, as much for Sunday’s sake as Thursday, while Nayef Aguerd was at fault for both Brentford goals. Aguerd is now sweating on his place as Moyes considers whether to play him or Angelo Ogbonna next Kurt Zouma.

If Moyes and West Ham get it right, the Hammers will look forward to their first European final in 47 years. Moyes has already said that winning the Europa Conference League would be the finest achievement of his managerial career. So long as his side maintain their unbeaten record in this season’s competition, they will be heading for Prague – and a scrap over tickets – next month.

Player to watch – Bruno Guimaraes
For all the talk of Manchester United wobbling and opening the top-four door for Liverpool, Newcastle are also having a bit of a moment. The Magpies are above United only on goal difference, and while their advantage over Liverpool ought to be enough to secure a seat at the Champions League table, Eddie Howe’s side seem to be doing it the hard way.

After taking one point from their last six, Newcastle are checking their shoulders while they wait for Brighton to turn up on Thursday. Which Seagulls side will show: the team who were embarrassed by Everton in their last home game? Or the one that ruthlessly took Arsenal apart at the Emirates?

Certainly if it is the better version of Brighton, Newcastle will have to rediscover their very best if they are to get back to winning ways. Which relies heavily on Bruno Guimaraes pulling himself out of his mini-funk.

Eddie Howe tried to help him on Saturday by shifting him to what his seen as his best position – as a right-sided no.8. Joelinton was employed as the deepest midfielder but the experiment lasted until the concession of a first-half penalty that should have given Newcastle a two-goal deficit to chase. That was the first of ‘four or five’ changes in system but none were sustainable enough in the face of a desperate fight from the league’s second-bottom side.

Newcastle face another of the strugglers at the weekend when they welcome Leicester before a final-day trip to Chelsea. They need five more points to secure a top-four spot. Bruno’s form, against Brighton’s Moises Caicedo and Alexis Mac Alister, will have a huge say in how comfortable the Magpies want to make the final week of a so-far fabulous season.

EFL games to watch – Championship play-offs
Three EFL play-off second-legs fall in midweek, with both Championship affairs still very much in the balance.

On Tuesday night, Sunderland take a 2-1 lead to Luton, with the Black Cats needing only to avoid defeat. A repeat of the 1-1 draw they earned at Kenilworth Road in October will do and their away form of late has been bloody good. They won four of their last five on the road, the other game being a 0-0 draw at champions Burnley.

The other tie is even tighter after a goalless first leg between Coventry and Middlesbrough on Sunday. If Boro allow themselves to think the hard bit is done after shutting out the Sky Blues on their patch, they could come a cropper. Coventry are undefeated in nine on the road, their last trip being a 1-1 draw at The Riverside.

While the Championship ties are finely poised, the League One meeting in midweek is not. Peterborough pummelled Sheffield Wednesday last week and it would take something absolutely catastrophic to keep Posh from Wembley.