Premier League best finishers: Roberto Firmino bows out as one of the leaders this season

We’ve had a good laugh at the players who are being most conspicuously owned by their xG stats, so it’s only right and fair that we acknowledge those at the other end of the scale who are making a mockery of the boffins’ projections.

The mirror-image feature is here. 

10) Harvey Barnes (Leicester City) – +3.5
Expected goals: 8.5
Actual goals: 12

Newcastle, Tottenham and Aston Villa have all been linked to a player who has quietly gone about the business of scoring goals in a really poor Leicester side.

9) Pascal Gross (Brighton) – +3.6
Expected goals: 5.4
Actual goals: 9

Takes fewer shots than anybody else on this list but he scores with almost one in four attempts.

8) Miguel Almiron (Newcastle) – +3.8
Expected goals: 7.2
Actual goals: 11

What a remarkable season for the Paraguayan who has become one of Eddie Howe’s great triumphs.

7) Phil Foden (Manchester City) – +4.6
Expected goals: 5.4
Actual goals: 10

And 1.9 of that very impressive overall figure is accounted for by Foden’s hat-trick in the Manchester derby. A strike v West Ham made it double figures for the first time.

6) Roberto Firmino (Liverpool) – +4.8
Expected goals: 5.2
Actual goals: 10

The final season of Firmino’s Liverpool career is his first double-figure Premier League season since 2018/19. He has been quite some player.

5) Martin Odegaard (Arsenal) – +5.1
Expected goals: 9.9
Actual goals: 15

Two goals v Chelsea and one v Newcastle made it five goals in four games either side of a performance v Manchester City that drew lots of criticism. He has still had a remarkable season.

4) Rodrigo (Leeds) – +5.1
Expected goals: 7.9
Actual goals: 13

Almost 97% of people would forget him in a list of strikers to score 10-plus goals this season.

3) Gabriel Martinelli (Arsenal) – +5.7
Expected goals: 9.3
Actual goals: 15

No shots against Manchester City or Chelsea as Leandro Trossard puts him under pressure for his Arsenal place but he is deep in the black.

2) Harry Kane (Spurs) – +7.5
Expected goals: 20.5
Actual goals: 28

Fair to say his penalty miss at Nottingham Forest will not his most memorable 12-yard failure of 2022, but even that 0.8 hit can’t unduly dent some very tidy numbers indeed for a prolific striker who is somehow managing to simultaneously be a) celebrating 200 Premier League goals, b) behind only Alan Shearer in those terms, c) on course for his best ever goalscoring season and c) absolutely nowhere near challenging for the Golden Boot.

1) Erling Haaland (Manchester City) – +8.7
Expected goals: 27.3
Actual goals: 36

He really is the most ludicrous finisher. The stats are ridiculous. City are going to win the Treble the one year that nobody has really been talking about it.